Thursday, August 15, 2013

Probability Of Rajai Davis' 'Inside-The-Errors' HR

After last night's unique "home run" by Toronto's Rajaj Davis, my employers asked me to calculate the probability of such an event occurring in a major league baseball game. To recount the event, Davis came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the third inning at the Rogers Centre last night. Then, he "singled" on a sharp ground ball to Jon Lester. Lester, after deflecting the ball, picked it up and threw wildly to first. The ball caromed around in right field, where Shane Victorino made another throwing error toward third. That got away enough to allow Davis to score.  Utilizing my Texas Instruments TI-1795SV calculator and our proprietary "Fausto Carmona" software program, we have determined that the chances of this event occurring again are 750,342,856 to 1. For ease of comparison, these odds are roughly the same as Alex Rodriguez not being on PEDs when he plays at Fenway Park tomorrow night. Thank you for your kind attention. I'll be in my Mom's basement if you need me.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

How Does Hanrahan Meaure Up With Statman?

With the acquisition of soon-to-be Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan, my bosses at FenwayNation have asked me to perform my statistical wizardry on the newcomer. First, I applied my best proprietary measure of pitching effectiveness to Hanrahan's career stats. The measure in question is, of course, CRAP (Crothers Reduction Above Pitching). Essentially, the formula takes into account: innings pitched, hits allowed, and the frequency of rosin bag application to the pitching hand. Using this formulation, we arrived at a CRAP score of 100.53. The average for all relief pitchers in 2012 was 73.76. Thus, Hanrahan comes in with a CRAPS Above Replacements (CRAP-AR) score of 26.77—which means that...uh, we're not exactly sure what that means, but we'll get back to you.

Friday, June 29, 2012

The Great Dalton Jones Average Experiment

For several years, FenwayNation has featured a unique device to track the level of confidence in The Olde Towne Team. The Dalton Jones Industrial Average (or DJIA) is a composite Index that measures the "Mood Of The Nation" via a select panel of 50 members worldwide. Historically, it's been a pretty good barometer of confidence in the Red Sox.  This month, we're opening up voting on the DJIA to both the Panel and our general readership. This experiment is our way to see if confidence among our panel members is in tune with the broader readership of FenwayNation. Tricky, huh?

If you'd like to vote, it's easy. You'll be asked to rate your level of confidence for the month of June on four key metrics—starting pitching, relief pitching, total offense and total defense. The whole thing takes about a minute—honestly. Just click "DONE" when your finished and your votes are automatically sent to FenwayNation.

To vote in this special Dalton Jones Industrial Average experiment, CLICK HERE.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Welcome To The StatMan Crothers Report!

My Future Paycheck (Ha! Ha!)
Hello, my name is StatMan Crothers (that's me in that cool picture over there). I'm pleased to join the staff of FenwayNation as the lead statistical consultant for the site. I have been assured that I will be paid for my services* with negotiable coupons from GameStop. How cool is that? I look forward to sharing with you my thoughts on all the little interesting statistical quirks about the Red Sox. The way I look at it, that's what makes baseball so much fun—lots of neat scatter plots and regression analyses. Yes! Hopefully, this "gig" will get me noticed by the front office over there on Yawkey Way. Keep your fingers crossed!

*Editor's Note: No salary agreement has been reached with StatMan Crothers.