Statman Crothers is the first paid consultant of FenwayNation. Crothers honed his statistical skills while working as a night watchman at the NECCO wafer factory in Cambridge. He reports from his Mom's basement in Ennui, Kansas.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
Probability Of Rajai Davis' 'Inside-The-Errors' HR
After last night's unique "home run" by Toronto's Rajaj Davis, my employers asked me to calculate the probability of such an event occurring in a major league baseball game. To recount the event, Davis came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the third inning at the Rogers Centre last night. Then, he "singled" on a sharp ground ball to Jon Lester. Lester, after deflecting the ball, picked it up and threw wildly to first. The ball caromed around in right field, where Shane Victorino made another throwing error toward third. That got away enough to allow Davis to score. Utilizing my Texas Instruments TI-1795SV calculator and our proprietary "Fausto Carmona" software program, we have determined that the chances of this event occurring again are 750,342,856 to 1. For ease of comparison, these odds are roughly the same as Alex Rodriguez not being on PEDs when he plays at Fenway Park tomorrow night. Thank you for your kind attention. I'll be in my Mom's basement if you need me.